Demand & inventory planning
The SupChains Way
Over the years, we developed our own way of doing demand and inventory planning. It is what we apply on every client project, and it is how the winning teams of the VN1 and VN2 competitions work too.
At its core: let a robust, global machine-learning engine do the mechanical forecasting work, ask planners to bring the information the engine cannot see, measure the value added at every step, and optimize inventory policies by simulation rather than trusting a formula.
The SupChains Way in 13 practices
What we do on every project, and what we stopped doing.
Forecasting Engine
- Run one global, bulletproof machine-learning enginenot statistical models tuned SKU by SKU
- Forecast unbiased, unconstrained demandnot sales capped by shortages, not the budget
- Forecast at the granularity your supply decisions neednot at the level the org chart asks for
- One shared engine for all productsno ABC/XYZ classes choosing the model
Planners
- Enrich only on real insightno reviewing top products one by one, no tweaking models, no gut feeling
- Fix data errors, model business eventsno outlier detection, no trimming history
- Budgets follow forecastsno wishful thinking, no forecast editing to hit the budget or the target
Measuring success
- Track the value added by every step (FVA)not one final accuracy number
- Track cumulative absolute error and Biasnot accuracy alone, never MAPE
- Measure cumulative error over the risk horizonnot one arbitrary lag
- Compare your accuracy vs. a moving averagedo not focus on absolute accuracy, it is arbitrary
Inventory Engine
- Tune inventory targets by simulation on real demand and forecastsnot the textbook formula, not DDMRP
- Set service levels by strategy, cost and risknot by ABC class
Get the 16 articles behind these practices
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The whole method in 34 minutes
How to run an efficient demand planning process
Want this applied to your supply chain?
SupChains delivers machine-learning demand forecasts and inventory optimization to manufacturers, distributors and retailers, and trains their planning teams. If your team is ready to change how it plans, let’s talk.
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